Three weeks ago, the geopolitical calculations that had shaped the Middle East for a generation changed in the space of a single night. The US-Israeli military strikes on Iran that began on 28 February 2026 were not, as some coverage has implied, a sudden development. They were the culmination of a trajectory that had been building since at least the June 2025 twelve-day war β and, in a longer view, since Iran began seriously accelerating its nuclear programme several years earlier.
What follows is not an argument for or against the military action. It is an attempt to explain clearly what happened, what the consequences have been, and where the situation stands as of mid-March 2026.
What Triggered the Strikes
The immediate precipitant was Iran’s nuclear posture. US and Israeli intelligence had assessed that Iran was approaching the capability to produce enough enriched uranium for multiple nuclear warheads. In the days immediately before the strikes, Oman’s Foreign Minister had brokered what he described as a “breakthrough” β Iran had reportedly agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium and to allow full IAEA verification. Peace, he said, was “within reach.”
But a parallel track was running. US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff stated that Iran had in fact insisted on its “inalienable right” to enrich uranium, rejected US proposals for zero enrichment, and had emphasised that its existing stockpile of 60% enriched uranium could theoretically produce eleven nuclear weapons. The two accounts β diplomatic breakthrough and irreconcilable difference β existed simultaneously, and the military option moved faster than the diplomatic one.
On 28 February 2026, the strikes began. The opening attack targeted what was described as the compound of Leadership House. Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader for over three decades, was killed in the opening hours. Within days, Iranian state media had announced his death and named his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor β though Mojtaba’s whereabouts and condition have remained unclear throughout the conflict, with unverified reports suggesting he may have been seriously injured and transferred to Moscow for medical treatment.
The Scale of the Military Campaign
The campaign β which the US has named Operation Epic Fury, reportedly costing nearly $900 million per day β has been extraordinarily intensive. Israeli forces have conducted more than 7,600 strikes across Iran as part of nearly 5,000 aerial sorties. Of these, approximately 4,700 targeted Iran’s missile programme. Over 70% of Iran’s missile launchers have reportedly been neutralised. More than 85% of Iran’s air defence systems and radars have been struck.
Iran has responded. Between 28 February and 4 March alone, Iran launched more than 90 attempted strikes against Israel. Iranian missiles and drones have targeted Gulf states including the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. Qatar temporarily suspended LNG production following a drone attack on 2 March. Dubai airport was briefly disrupted by a fire following a drone strike on 16 March. Saudi Arabia intercepted 35 Iranian drones targeting its eastern oil region in a single day.
The Strait of Hormuz β the narrow chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows β has been effectively closed by the combination of Iranian fire, war-risk surcharges, and the unwillingness of commercial shipping operators to expose their vessels to the conflict zone. The economic consequences of this closure are severe and are addressed in detail in our analysis of the oil shock and its economic implications.
International Responses
The international response has been notable for its divergence from the US position. Japan, Australia, the UK, and France have all declined to send warships to assist in securing the Strait of Hormuz, despite Trump’s public criticism of allies for failing to support the US. The EU rebuffed direct pressure to expand its naval operations in the region. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed support for continued operations, but the broader coalition that the US might have expected has not materialised.
The UN Security Council has been unable to act meaningfully. Russia has benefited economically from the energy disruption, as a major non-Gulf hydrocarbon supplier, and has no interest in a rapid resolution. China has diplomatic and economic interests in Iran and has been quiet rather than supportive of the US position.
What the US Objectives Actually Are
Washington’s stated objectives include degrading Iran’s nuclear programme, ballistic missile capabilities, naval assets, drone production, and control of regional proxy networks. CSIS analysts note that these objectives were partly achieved in the June 2025 war but not fully. The question that has divided analysts is whether the current campaign has a defined endpoint β a specific set of conditions under which the US would consider the objectives met β or whether the momentum toward regime change creates its own trajectory.
Secretary of Defence Hegseth described Operation Epic Fury as “straightforward.” The gap between that characterisation and the complexity on the ground β a conflict now entering its third week, with no clear ceasefire framework, Iran preparing for a long war, and the Strait of Hormuz closed β is where the serious analysis needs to occur.
Where This Goes From Here
Trump has said Iran is “eager to negotiate but not yet ready to deal.” Iran’s parliament speaker, for his part, has said the Strait of Hormuz “cannot be as it was before.” These two statements define the gap that diplomacy would need to bridge. With Nowruz β the Persian new year β approaching, and Eid al-Fitr coinciding with the period, there is some diplomatic urgency. Muslim-majority countries are pushing for at least a temporary ceasefire. Whether that produces a pause, a deal, or simply a prolonged low-intensity conflict remains the central unknown.
What is not unknown is that this conflict has already produced the biggest economic disruption of the decade, the most significant test of US military objectives in the Middle East since Iraq, and a challenge to the international order that will shape relations between Washington and its allies for years regardless of outcome.
Frequently Asked Questions
When did the 2026 Iran war start?
The war began on 28 February 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched coordinated military strikes against Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening hours of the campaign.
Why did the US and Israel attack Iran in 2026?
The immediate trigger was Iran’s nuclear programme β specifically its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and refusal to agree to zero enrichment. A previous 12-day conflict in June 2025 had set back but not eliminated Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The February 2026 strikes were a more comprehensive attempt to achieve those objectives.
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed in March 2026?
Yes. As of mid-March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to most commercial traffic due to Iranian fire targeting shipping, war-risk surcharges, and the unwillingness of vessel operators to risk transit. The closure has pushed oil above $100 a barrel and disrupted global energy markets.
